Filenews 3 November 2020
In ten ambivalent states, which may tilt the scale in favour of one or the other gladiator, the outcome of the 2020 U.S. Election is expected to be judged.
And that's why both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have focused their attention there and dropped all the weight of their campaign in recent times en route to the polls to secure the required 270 votes out of the Electoral College's total of 538.
In 2016, Donald Trump had prevailed in the top six key states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Arizona. This time the polling average, according to Real Clear Politics, gives Joe Biden the lead. The former U.S. vice president also leads Georgia, a state that hasn't elected a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976. In the Democratic camp, however, optimism is very subdued given that Hillary Clinton also led in the polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, but her Republican opponent ultimately prevailed.
Florida
For Trump, Florida is vital if he wants to be re-elected president, since the "Sunny State" with its large community of Cuban-born voters and many retirees -- two traditionally conservative groups of voters -- has 29 electors. Indicative of the importance of the Republican president in the battle of Florida is that he exercised his right to vote there a few days ago. Joe Biden's four-percentage-point lead in early October has closed close to one point there, with the Democratic nominee hoping to attract the votes of young people, especially Hispanics with increased sensitivity to immigration issues. Donald Trump had conquered Florida in last year's election thanks to the votes of the elderly – only this time things can turn out differently since this age group has been hit hardest by the coronavirus and it is not out of the question that they will want to punish the occupant of the White House for the disastrous management of the pandemic.
North Carolina
Donald Trump is counting on the votes of whites, farmers and the elderly as well as Evangelical voters, whose support was decisive four years ago for his victory in North Carolina. Joe Biden, on the other hand, looks forward to the votes of African Americans and white supremacists to win the 15 electors of that state. But here, too, his lead in the polls has shrunk considerably and almost disappeared.
Pennsylvania
In the previous US election, Donald Trump had won by just 44,000 votes, the traditionally Democratic Pennsylvania with 20 electors, which has been hit by globalisation and industrial decline. Pennsylvania-born Biden, who has a 4% poll lead there, counts on urban voters, the elderly and workers who had turned their backs on Hillary Clinton to regain Pennsylvania.
Trump again wants to capitalize on the votes of whites from rural areas and limit their losses to black voters, promising a "fantastic" recovery in the economy if re-elected.
Wisconsin
Four years ago, Hillary Clinton overlooked America's "dairy" with 10 electors, leading Wisconsin to give Trump victory. In this election, Biden has a poll lead of six percentage points, but the battle will be ambivalent in a state where two people lost their lives in clashes between far-right and anti-racists last August.
Michigan
Donald Trump had managed in 2016 to win the 16 electoral votes of this historically Democratic state by promising an economic boom in this former industrial area. Democrats rely on the votes of white suburban voters, the black community and unionized workers.
With a six-point lead, Joe Biden is also counting on the popularity of Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Trump's fierce rival, who was also the target of a kidnapping plot by a far-right militia.
Arizona
Joe Biden is hoping to make the big surprise in Arizona with the 11 electors who haven't voted for a Democratic candidate since 1996. His lead there has shrunk to under one point, but he looks forward to the vote of the young urban Hispanics who had pushed Kirsten Sinema to the Senate two years ago.
Donald Trump has alienated some conservative voters with his war against Vietnam war hero Senator John McCain, and didn't want to attend his funeral two years ago. On the other hand, it is based on the votes of those who react to irregular immigration and approved the construction of the notorious wall on the border with Mexico.
Georgia
Donald Trump had won Georgia's 16 electoral votes in 2016, but in the latest polls he was slightly behind Biden, based on the African-American community's vote (32%). population and urban voters, who traditionally support Democrats.
Trump, again, promises a program that will improve the economic situation of blacks. Both gladiators also work for white voters in affluent suburbs.
Iowa
In 2016, Donald Trump prevailed comfortably in this sparsely populated, deeply religious, rural and majority-white State, which voted for Barack Obama twice in 2008 and 2012 and is not out of the question to repeat his triumph this time, as a recent poll showed.
Ohio
Four years ago, Donald Trump had prevailed by an 8% margin in Ohio with his 18 super-electors, attracting frustrated Democrats, whom Joe Biden is trying to bring back to his camp, since the current Occupant of the White House has brought jobs to the state affected by the industrial crisis, factory relocations abroad and where the situation is worrying for farmers. A few hours before the vote, the two gladiators appear almost tied in the polls.
Texas
After Florida, Texas with 38 electors, which has been voting for Republican candidates since 1980 in every election, is the other state that Trump can't lose if he wants to be re-elected. The Republican president is betting on his anti-immigrant policy and his support for the oil industry, but Biden may be a surprise due to the changing demographic composition of the state - including the growth of the Hispanic community - and the mobilization, he hopes, of new urban graduates.
Source: iefimerida.gr
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